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LNP - Climate change brings more extreme weather


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#1 LTnewsDawg

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Posted 11 September 2017 - 05:45 AM

If you suspected that you were playing against loaded dice, you would have to record a lot of rolls, and lose all your money, before you would have statistical proof that the probabilities were off. It would be much better to examine the dice.

Scientists have been examining climate systems for many years and have reached consensus that increased carbon dioxide is increasing the temperature of the atmosphere and the ocean. They have also determined there is a high probability that increased temperatures — more energy in the system — will increase the likelihood of rare, extreme weather events.

In 2012, Superstorm Sandy rolled up the East Coast, like many other autumn storms, and then made an extremely unusual left hook and slammed into New Jersey and New York, becoming the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history.

Increased ocean temperatures lead to more moisture in the atmosphere. In 2012, the Carolinas experienced an anomalous rain event that dumped as much as 2 feet of rain. Higher ocean temperatures also lead to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. In an extremely unusual event, Hurricane Joaquin, hitting a patch of record warm water, intensified from Category 1 to Category 4 in 24 hours, surprising the SS El Faro. Ship and crew were lost.

In 2016, Louisiana experienced an anomalous rain event that dropped more than 2 feet of rain. Hurricane Harvey intensified from Category 1 to Category 4 in a day and slammed into the Texas coast, dropping as much as 50-plus inches of rain.

No single extreme event can be presented as proof of global warming. But with scientists predicting that this is what will happen, a wise person would pay attention.

David Stoeckl

Conestoga Township


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#2 Pastor of Muppets

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Posted 11 September 2017 - 10:46 PM

Dave, stop propagating that liberal conspiracy hoax!


#sarcasm
#bush43worstpresidentever

#3 prettylight

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 03:36 PM

If you suspected that you were playing against loaded dice, you would have to record a lot of rolls, and lose all your money, before you would have statistical proof that the probabilities were off. It would be much better to examine the dice.

 

Scientists have been examining climate systems for many years and have reached consensus that increased carbon dioxide is increasing the temperature of the atmosphere and the ocean. They have also determined there is a high probability that increased temperatures — more energy in the system — will increase the likelihood of rare, extreme weather events.

 

In 2012, Superstorm Sandy rolled up the East Coast, like many other autumn storms, and then made an extremely unusual left hook and slammed into New Jersey and New York, becoming the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history.

 

Increased ocean temperatures lead to more moisture in the atmosphere. In 2012, the Carolinas experienced an anomalous rain event that dumped as much as 2 feet of rain. Higher ocean temperatures also lead to rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. In an extremely unusual event, Hurricane Joaquin, hitting a patch of record warm water, intensified from Category 1 to Category 4 in 24 hours, surprising the SS El Faro. Ship and crew were lost.

 

In 2016, Louisiana experienced an anomalous rain event that dropped more than 2 feet of rain. Hurricane Harvey intensified from Category 1 to Category 4 in a day and slammed into the Texas coast, dropping as much as 50-plus inches of rain.

 

No single extreme event can be presented as proof of global warming. But with scientists predicting that this is what will happen, a wise person would pay attention.

 

David Stoeckl

Conestoga Township


View the full article

 

appreciate his good letter.

respect and admiration for his ability to put things into words clearly and well...so even us non-scientists can understand, and learn something new.


Goliath doesn't always win. Sometimes David wins.  --paraphrasing Bill Moyers

 


#4 lanzate

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 04:25 PM

To bad it is not backed up by science.
In all affairs it's a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on things you have long taken for granted. -Bertrand Russell

#5 prettylight

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 04:47 PM

To bad it is not backed up by science.

 

lol

says you, lanzate


Goliath doesn't always win. Sometimes David wins.  --paraphrasing Bill Moyers

 


#6 lanzate

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 04:54 PM

lol
says you, lanzate


Show me an actually scientist that says storms are worse now than they were in the past. Not one that says they will be.
In all affairs it's a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on things you have long taken for granted. -Bertrand Russell

#7 prettylight

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 04:58 PM

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Show me an actually scientist that says storms are worse now than they were in the past. Not one that says they will be.

I believe the letter-writer is an actual scientist,

 

and will find additional sources for you, will be back


Goliath doesn't always win. Sometimes David wins.  --paraphrasing Bill Moyers

 


#8 lanzate

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 05:37 PM

I believe the letter-writer is an actual scientist,

and will find additional sources for you, will be back


That would make sense. Cause he says in the letter that scientists believe storms will get stronger. No matter how many times unprecedented and extreme is used does not make it so. Storms like these have been documented all the way back to colonial times. Back before we drained 98% of the wetland sponges and cut down all the trees for our houses and shopping malls they passed with little impact. If you based your climate change argument on increased storms you will lose cause the facts are not there.
In all affairs it's a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on things you have long taken for granted. -Bertrand Russell

#9 prettylight

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 06:25 PM

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Show me an actually scientist that says storms are worse now than they were in the past.

 

Here is NASA, weighing in on it:

 

Storms are Getting Stronger - NASA Earth Observatory

https://earthobserva...torms/page2.php


Goliath doesn't always win. Sometimes David wins.  --paraphrasing Bill Moyers

 


#10 Farmer Vincent

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 07:32 PM

I've lived in this area all my life and can't remember tornadoes being as commonplace as they are now or record breaking heat waves happening with such frequency.  But that's just my backyard.  I read that it's worse elsewhere.  Somebody in Reno, NV told me they had a record number of days in a row of over 100 degrees.  


"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding it's way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov


#11 lanzate

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 08:15 PM

Here is NASA, weighing in on it:
Storms are Getting Stronger - NASA Earth Observatory
https://earthobserva...torms/page2.php


NASA does not have the data to make those assumptions.
In all affairs it's a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on things you have long taken for granted. -Bertrand Russell

#12 lanzate

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 08:21 PM


I've lived in this area all my life and can't remember tornadoes being as commonplace as they are now or record breaking heat waves happening with such frequency. But that's just my backyard. I read that it's worse elsewhere. Somebody in Reno, NV told me they had a record number of days in a row of over 100 degrees.


I remember tornadoes. This kind of talk is all over the Internet. We didn't have "extreme" weather when I was a kid. Guess what? They didn't call it extreme. They called it weather. We haven't had an Agnes in 45 years. That was a storm of storms that has never been match. Not even Sandy or Harvey. Harvey just happen to not move so it hit just one area. Agnes hit the entire east coast.
In all affairs it's a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on things you have long taken for granted. -Bertrand Russell

#13 prettylight

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 08:39 PM

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NASA does not have the data to make those assumptions.

 

 

well, NASA is full of bona fide scientists, "pioneering the future of...scientific discovery"

likely to be a reliable source ;)

 

 

maybe more reliable than you and I? unless you do have a strong scientific background; I don't...and I'm pretty sure my ignorance is not as good as a scientist's knowledge.


Edited by prettylight, 12 September 2017 - 08:44 PM.

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#14 Farmer Vincent

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 10:08 PM

I remember tornadoes. This kind of talk is all over the Internet. We didn't have "extreme" weather when I was a kid. Guess what? They didn't call it extreme. They called it weather. We haven't had an Agnes in 45 years. That was a storm of storms that has never been match. Not even Sandy or Harvey. Harvey just happen to not move so it hit just one area. Agnes hit the entire east coast.

I remember news of tornadoes but they were a good distance away.  The only one that sticks in my mind is the outbreak of tornadoes in western and mid PA one day in May of 1985.  Tore up Black Moshannon State Park pretty good.  None in the Susquehanna Valley.  Now it seems that there's one or more every couple of months here or in a neighboring county.  


"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding it's way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov


#15 mmc0412

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 07:09 AM

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I remember tornadoes. This kind of talk is all over the Internet. We didn't have "extreme" weather when I was a kid. Guess what? They didn't call it extreme. They called it weather. We haven't had an Agnes in 45 years. That was a storm of storms that has never been match. Not even Sandy or Harvey. Harvey just happen to not move so it hit just one area. Agnes hit the entire east coast.

To Texas, Harvey was Agnes.  The only reason Agnes was so bad in PA was that it hung around for days, just like Harvey.  Agnes was a Cat 1.  Harvey was a Cat 4.  Pretty sure Texas was hit worse by Harvey than PA was with Agnes.  Central VA experienced TS Gaston several years ago.  Wasn't even a hurricane.  But it sat over central VA for hours and hours dropping rain which caused massive flooding and death.  I don't think you can compare hurricanes that move along like they should to those that just sit there for whatever reason.  Comparing one hurricane to another is pointless.  What is important is the pattern.  The severity, size, and frequency.



#16 grieker

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 09:49 AM

You Chicken Little sky is falling man-made climate change loons are deplorable and belong in Hillary's basket.

 

"Extreme" weather happens all the time, always has, always will.  Oh my, it was over 100 degrees for over 7 days...  oh my it rained 17 inches here, I never remember such a rainfall event - no shit Sherlock that's why it's called the 100 year flood event.  Oh my Alaska just had an earthquake:  no connection morons.

 

Feed the cows algae - holy shit.!

 

How about we just kill ALL  livestock?  Oh, oh, oh wait - let's also destroy ALL internal combustion engines.  That way dear sweet Mother Earth will heal, the temperatures will fall, there will be a great reduction in "extreme" weather and the progressives can get on with bitching about something else.


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#17 lanzate

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 10:57 AM

Agnes was much bigger than Harvey. It caused 26 confirmed tornados in Florida alone...killed people in nearly every state on the east coast from Florida to Canada.
In all affairs it's a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on things you have long taken for granted. -Bertrand Russell

#18 Farmer Vincent

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 11:43 AM

You Chicken Little sky is falling man-made climate change loons are deplorable and belong in Hillary's basket.

 

"Extreme" weather happens all the time, always has, always will.  Oh my, it was over 100 degrees for over 7 days...  oh my it rained 17 inches here, I never remember such a rainfall event - no shit Sherlock that's why it's called the 100 year flood event.  Oh my Alaska just had an earthquake:  no connection morons.

 

Feed the cows algae - holy shit.!

 

How about we just kill ALL  livestock?  Oh, oh, oh wait - let's also destroy ALL internal combustion engines.  That way dear sweet Mother Earth will heal, the temperatures will fall, there will be a great reduction in "extreme" weather and the progressives can get on with bitching about something else.

What would register as an extreme and unusual weather pattern for you?  


"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding it's way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov


#19 grieker

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 11:56 AM

What would register as an extreme and unusual weather pattern for you?  

 

Extreme and unusual?  Rain on the peak Mt Everest in the dead of winter, snow in July in Pennsylvania and Florida.

 

I believe the low pressure storm system that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald back 1975 was "extreme", but it wasn't a pattern.

 

Numerous hurricanes originating in the great lakes would be an example of extreme and unusual weather patterns.

 

Months of snow in the deserts of the world during summer months would be extreme and unusual weather patters.

 

What we have had in the last 100 years or so are by-and-large, typical.


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#20 Farmer Vincent

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 01:43 PM

Extreme and unusual?  Rain on the peak Mt Everest in the dead of winter, snow in July in Pennsylvania and Florida.

 

I believe the low pressure storm system that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald back 1975 was "extreme", but it wasn't a pattern.

 

Numerous hurricanes originating in the great lakes would be an example of extreme and unusual weather patterns.

 

Months of snow in the deserts of the world during summer months would be extreme and unusual weather patters.

 

What we have had in the last 100 years or so are by-and-large, typical.

So you've named some things that don't happen.  That just means that you lack the ability to recognize weather patterns that have migrated into what could be considered extreme.  

 

How about this?  Normal event for a place that has long been covered with a very thick layer of ice?

 

Wildfire still burning in Greenland tundra in mid-August 2017

 

https://www.climate....mid-august-2017

 

 

International report confirms 2016 was third consecutive year of record global warmth

 

https://www.climate....n-united-states


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#21 grieker

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 01:52 PM

So you've named some things that don't happen.  That just means that you lack the ability to recognize weather patterns that have migrated into what could be considered extreme.  

 

How about this?  Normal event for a place that has long been covered with a very thick layer of ice?

 

Wildfire still burning in Greenland tundra in mid-August 2017

 

https://www.climate....mid-august-2017

 

 

International report confirms 2016 was third consecutive year of record global warmth

 

https://www.climate....n-united-states

 

Perspective Vince.  

 

Quite a bit of North America used to be covered in a thick layer of ice, then thankfully global warming happened and we have the great lakes.

 

Finding tropical plant fossils have been found in Greenland, Corals have been found in the Norwegian Sea.  Fossils of Camels, sheep, antelopes, etc have been found in artic areas of Siberia and Alaska.

 

Like the fire in Greenland - IT'S CYCLIC Vince.


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#22 Farmer Vincent

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 02:03 PM

Perspective Vince.  

 

Quite a bit of North America used to be covered in a thick layer of ice, then thankfully global warming happened and we have the great lakes.

 

Finding tropical plant fossils have been found in Greenland, Corals have been found in the Norwegian Sea.  Fossils of Camels, sheep, antelopes, etc have been found in artic areas of Siberia and Alaska.

 

Like the fire in Greenland - IT'S CYCLIC Vince.

Normal cycles occur over eons, not decades.  


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#23 grieker

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 02:07 PM

Normal cycles occur over eons, not decades.  

 

My guess is dear Mother Earth experienced eons of Global Warming, aka Climate Change for the ice age to occur and then again for the ice age to disappear.

 

Just a guess.  We could be on that cyclical upswing of that Global Warming trend that caused the ice age to go away.


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#24 Farmer Vincent

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 02:22 PM

My guess is dear Mother Earth experienced eons of Global Warming, aka Climate Change for the ice age to occur and then again for the ice age to disappear.

 

Just a guess.  We could be on that cyclical upswing of that Global Warming trend that caused the ice age to go away.

The last ice age ended 10,000 years ago.  Had that cycle of warming continued on pace, we'd be a burnt cinder by now.  But in reality there were relatively stable temperatures from 10,000 up until 100 or so years ago.  The main factor in the cause of ice ages is the amount of sunlight we receive.  That amount hasn't increased in any way to cause a sudden spike.  


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#25 grieker

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 02:37 PM

The last ice age ended 10,000 years ago.  Had that cycle of warming continued on pace, we'd be a burnt cinder by now.  But in reality there were relatively stable temperatures from 10,000 up until 100 or so years ago.  The main factor in the cause of ice ages is the amount of sunlight we receive.  That amount hasn't increased in any way to cause a sudden spike.  

 

Confirming Vince - it's cyclic.  Also there IS more sunlight (energy) reaching the earth today than there was eons ago as the sun continues its aging process towards becoming  a red giant, boiling away earths atmosphere and killing every living carbon based creature on the planet.  Then BANG - bye-bye Mother Earth.


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#26 Farmer Vincent

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Posted 14 September 2017 - 11:07 AM

Confirming Vince - it's cyclic.  Also there IS more sunlight (energy) reaching the earth today than there was eons ago as the sun continues its aging process towards becoming  a red giant, boiling away earths atmosphere and killing every living carbon based creature on the planet.  Then BANG - bye-bye Mother Earth.

Lol.  No sense of cosmological time.  

 

The Sun is in the middle of it's lifecycle and is relatively stable.  In another billion years it will begin a gradual warming phase until it turns into a red giant about 5 1/2 billion years down the road.  Try to visualize one century compared to a billion years.  


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#27 prettylight

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Posted 15 September 2017 - 11:16 AM

Horacek_DenialistDragon_SM.jpg


Goliath doesn't always win. Sometimes David wins.  --paraphrasing Bill Moyers

 





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